A Survation poll today released by the Centre for Welsh Studies reveals that the Labour Party are ahead in the polling by quite a margin on both the regional (36%) and constituency (40%) polls. The Conservative Party are behind them in both the regional (23%) and constituency (26%).

The surprise comes with the Brexit Party polling better than expected (10% regional), with Brexit now being done many had expected them to fall away in the polls. Whilst for Plaid Cymru, the polling looks good with them polling just behind the Conservatives on the regional poll (22%) and bit further back for the constituency poll (18%).

Matthew MacKinnon, Director of the Centre for Welsh Studies said:

The Senedd polling results come as no great surprise, with the Conservatives nationally having a very tough month and Labour bouncing with strong approval ratings for their new leader Sir Keir Starmer.

This polling does include 16 and 17-year-old voters who will be able to vote in next years devolved elections, so the strong show for Labour may be down to this recent change in who is eligible to vote.

The interesting points to note are that when Brexit is delivered at the end of this year, will the vote shown on this poll for the Brexit party, stay with them, return to the Conservatives or go to another anti-establishment party like Abolish?

The Conservatives messaging has to be strategically placed over the next 11 months if they are taking this election seriously, they need to hold their core vote, whilst attracting anti-devolution voters and hardened Brexiteers. A balance that Boris managed in 2019, but may be harder to replicate at a devolved election.

Context – We understand you will question why it says ‘Assembly’ and not Parliament in the question. We decided to go with Assembly in this poll because the change of name had only just happened before the polling began and we didn’t want to confuse those being polled. In future polls we will use the term Senedd/Welsh Parliament. 

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Centre for Welsh Studies Poll
Fieldwork Dates: 22/05/20 – 31/05/20
Data Collection Method: The survey was conducted via online panel. Data were weighted to the profile of all people in Wales aged 16+. Data were weighted by age, sex, Welsh region, 2019 general election vote, 2017 general election vote, 2016 EU referendum vote and 2016 Welsh Assembly constituency vote. Targets for the weighted data were derived from Office for National Statistics Census Data and the results of the 2019 and 2017 UK general elections, the 2016 EU referendum and the 2016 Welsh Assembly election. Population Sampled: All residents aged 16+ living in Wales. Sample Size: 1,051.